2.11.2008

Check out this hand from Mikerizz33.

Two of my friends Mikerizz33 and KakaFC22 have been doing really well in tournaments as of late. They have managed to play in a few FTOPS events by winning their win in via satellites. Mikerizz33 was able to win 4 extra seats to event #1 and 2 extra seats to event #9. Awesome job on that and it definitely helps pad the bankroll. He's played in events 1, 8, and 9 with no cashes. Nothing seems to be working out when he hits the big stage. Here's a hand summary he asked me to put up that I think is worth talking about.

Mikerizz33 raises UTG+1 with AQ to 3x the BB to 360. Two middle position players called and then the BB moved all-in for 1400 total. The action got back to Mikerizz33 and he was faced with a decision. It was 1040 more to call and he had 2700 chips left after his raise. It was decision time:

(a) Call the extra 1040 and commit about 40% his remaining stack to this hand and be left with just under 14 BBs
(b) Fold and leave himself with 22.5 BBs
(c) Reraise all-in for an additional 1660 chips on top of the BB's all-in

What do you guys think the best play would be?

My analysis:
I'm not sure of any of the opponent's tendencies or the table dynamics, but I think I'd be more apt to choose option (b) here. I don't like cold calling and feeling committed to the hand. Also, calling will allow the players behind to also call with increased pot odds if they have they have a hand to do so with. With that said, I don't think I'm calling ever. So that leaves me with the final two options, fold or shove all-in. With folding, there would still be a good amount of play left in my stack with 22.5 BBs. I only have AQ and would be thinking that I'm either dominated by the BB's hand or that I'm racing with him. With the structure of the event and the slowness of it, I think I'd be more than content with folding here. If I didn't fold though, I would choose to shove all-in. This would help to give me isolation against the BB alone if I thought I had him beat and unless one of the callers behind me is just smooth calling my original raise with a monster, I'm thinking I'm ahead of them or that I have enough fold equity on them. Not to mention my reshove would show a lot of strength on my part. I probably break down my plays something like this: call 5%, fold 60%, raise all-in 35%.

It turns out Mikerizz33 choose option (c) and moved in trying to isolate against the BB, a perfectly fine play in my opinion. What he couldn't understand is how one of the middle position players called holding 66 for around 75% of his or her remaining chips. Well, I don't have an answer for that either. Maybe they wanted to race or just get lucky, who knows. All we know is that obviously Mikerizz33's shove didn't work in isolating the BB. I think this is a bad call by the middle position player, unless they choose to gamble if they put the two all-ins on completely bogus hands. Even then, why risk it? I think in the end though, if Mikerizz33 chooses to shove and isolate there, he might invite weak calls like this, even if someone does have a slightly better hand. He's already committing a good amount of his chips and the extra call behind is only adding chips to the pot for him to win. I say because if he chooses to reshove with AQ and is willing to accept a race with the BB, why not accept another person in there to race with also?

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree that the better option might have been to fold, but like you said the all-in shove is a viable option, which took place. I also agree that the middle position is looking to get lucky and catch a break. With two all-ins before him and he calls with just 66, he's looking for a little luck. I don't agree though that it's acceptable to have other weak callers like the 66 because it descreases the odds considerably of you winning the hand, especially since you aren't a monster yet.

Anonymous said...

Hey, its MikeRizz33. The main reason I chose the iso-shove is bc the BB was a SS who had shoved 2 hands prior and I knew they would be shoving ATC and he had J9off. I hit an A and the 66 made a set. IMO, the iso-shove is the only play here, a fold is just weak, and a call is a mortal sin. The problem here is the 66 making that call, they obv don't know how to win at poker.

Donnie Peters said...

Yeah, I know what you're saying. The choices are definitely between raising or folding. Calling is out the window. I know the iso-shove didn't work, but I think in this type of hand the hands like 66 will get out of the way. Just so happens it didn't work out this time.

Anonymous said...
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osinsh said...

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Anonymous said...

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@bradley_utz said...

folding is nitty and weak in this spot...once Z opens for 360 (and 2 players call behind him) there is 1260 in the pot...the BB could be squeezing here with such a wide range here an iso-shove seems pretty standard imo

@bradley_utz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.